Preparing for the (Non-Existent?) Future of Work
This Brookings working paper examines institutional preparation for scenarios involving increasingly sophisticated autonomous machines that could displace human labor and suppress wages. The analysis addresses three potential consequences of such developments and evaluates recent predictions alongside counterarguments.
The paper explores optimal approaches when autonomous machine income rises while labor value diminishes. It suggests that "phasing out work, beginning with workers who have low labor productivity" may prove most effective. The author argues that welfare frameworks demanding labor participation from low-productivity workers would be counterproductive.
Significant wage declines would necessitate novel income distribution mechanisms—through capital ownership or benefit systems—to prevent widespread hardship. The paper acknowledges work may retain intrinsic value when individuals find it personally fulfilling. It proposes that public policy might encourage work engagement when it generates positive external benefits or when people underestimate work's advantages. However, the conclusion suggests developing alternative mechanisms for delivering these benefits long-term.