GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
This GovAI research paper examines how large language models (LLMs) may affect employment and job tasks across the economy.
The researchers developed a framework to assess LLM relevance to worker tasks. Their analysis reveals two distinct scenarios:
Conservative estimate: "roughly 1.8% of jobs could have over half their tasks affected by LLMs with simple interfaces and general training"
With complementary technologies: The impact expands significantly when accounting for future software developments that enhance LLM capabilities, with "just over 46% of jobs" potentially affected.
The paper characterizes LLMs as general-purpose technologies (GPTs), similar to other transformative innovations. This classification suggests their broad applicability across economic sectors.
The authors emphasize that "research is needed to estimate how jobs may be affected" and call for "robust societal evaluations and policy measures to address potential effects of LLMs and complementary technologies on labor markets."
Published: June 20, 2024. Journal: Science. Authors: Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, and Daniel Rock.